Analysis of drought and extreme precipitation events in Thailand: trends, climate modeling, and implications for climate change adaptation
Abstract Thailand is under threat from climate change, where extreme climate events are expected to intensify and increase in the coming decades. The objective is to assess extreme drought and rainfall events in Thailand based on climate modeling through an ensemble for future projections of extreme...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-02-01
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-86826-x |
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| author | José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior David Mendes Helder Dutra Porto Kelvy Rosalvo Alencar Cardoso José Augusto Ferreira Neto Emannuel Bezerra Cavalcante da Silva Marlúcia de Aquino Pereira Monica Cristina Damião Mendes Bernardo Bruno Dias Baracho Punyawi Jamjareegulgarn |
| author_facet | José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior David Mendes Helder Dutra Porto Kelvy Rosalvo Alencar Cardoso José Augusto Ferreira Neto Emannuel Bezerra Cavalcante da Silva Marlúcia de Aquino Pereira Monica Cristina Damião Mendes Bernardo Bruno Dias Baracho Punyawi Jamjareegulgarn |
| author_sort | José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Thailand is under threat from climate change, where extreme climate events are expected to intensify and increase in the coming decades. The objective is to assess extreme drought and rainfall events in Thailand based on climate modeling through an ensemble for future projections of extreme climate indices. The climate indices used were Consecutive Dry Days (CDD), Maximum Number of Consecutive Summer Days (CSU), Consecutive Wet Days (CWD), Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI), and Maximum Number of Consecutive Wet Days (WW) derived from simulations of an ensemble composed of six models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) via the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) with the backpropagation method. The projections were based on three scenarios: historical (20th century); intermediate forcing (RCP 4.5) and high forcing (RCP 8.5). The results of the climate indices pointed to significant regional differences in Thailand. Historically, the CDD indicated 35 consecutive dry days in the northern (N) and northeastern (NE) parts of Thailand, whereas the southern region showed CDD values of fewer than 10 consecutive dry days. In the R4.5 scenario, a meridional pattern emerged in CDD, increasing from east (E) to west (W). In the R8.5 scenario, the number of consecutive dry days increased across the entire country. The WSDI stood out in both the R4.5 and R8.5 scenarios, with an increase in the duration of warm spells in Thailand. The CSU did not perform satisfactorily in the scenarios adopted. Historically, the CWD indicated consecutive wet days in the N and NE, whereas in the R4.5 and R8.5 scenarios, this was observed only in the Central and Southern regions. Historically, the maximum number of consecutive rainy days varied in the NE and South via WW. In the R4.5 and R8.5 scenarios, there was a significant increase in the maximum number of consecutive rainy days across Thailand. Projections based on climate indices indicate that Thailand needs to adopt mitigation measures across its regions to neutralize the impacts of extreme drought and rainfall events on socioeconomic sectors, particularly in tourism, industry, agricultural production, and food security for its population. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-16441c96f2484bc693d76995e8904c85 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
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| spelling | doaj-art-16441c96f2484bc693d76995e8904c852025-02-09T12:37:20ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-02-0115111610.1038/s41598-025-86826-xAnalysis of drought and extreme precipitation events in Thailand: trends, climate modeling, and implications for climate change adaptationJosé Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior0David Mendes1Helder Dutra Porto2Kelvy Rosalvo Alencar Cardoso3José Augusto Ferreira Neto4Emannuel Bezerra Cavalcante da Silva5Marlúcia de Aquino Pereira6Monica Cristina Damião Mendes7Bernardo Bruno Dias Baracho8Punyawi Jamjareegulgarn9Laboratório de Meteorologia Aplicada e Meio Ambiente (LAMMA), Instituto de Ciências Atmosféricas (ICAT), Universidade Federal do AlagoasPost-Graduate Program in Aerospace Engineering – PPGEA, Federal University of Rio Grande do NortePrograma de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de Biossistemas, Universidade Federal FluminenseLaboratório de Meteorologia Aplicada e Meio Ambiente (LAMMA), Instituto de Ciências Atmosféricas (ICAT), Universidade Federal do AlagoasPrograma de Pós-graduação em Ciências Climáticas, Laboratório de Estudos Avançados do Clima, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do NortePrograma de Pós-graduação em Ciências Climáticas, Laboratório de Estudos Avançados do Clima, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do NortePrograma de Pós-graduação em Ciências Climáticas, Laboratório de Estudos Avançados do Clima, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do NorteInstituto Nacional de Pesquisa Espacial, Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e InovaçãoDepartamento de Ciências Atmosféricas e Climáticas, Laboratorio de Estudos Avançados do Clima, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do NorteKing Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Prince of Chumphon CampusAbstract Thailand is under threat from climate change, where extreme climate events are expected to intensify and increase in the coming decades. The objective is to assess extreme drought and rainfall events in Thailand based on climate modeling through an ensemble for future projections of extreme climate indices. The climate indices used were Consecutive Dry Days (CDD), Maximum Number of Consecutive Summer Days (CSU), Consecutive Wet Days (CWD), Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI), and Maximum Number of Consecutive Wet Days (WW) derived from simulations of an ensemble composed of six models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) via the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) with the backpropagation method. The projections were based on three scenarios: historical (20th century); intermediate forcing (RCP 4.5) and high forcing (RCP 8.5). The results of the climate indices pointed to significant regional differences in Thailand. Historically, the CDD indicated 35 consecutive dry days in the northern (N) and northeastern (NE) parts of Thailand, whereas the southern region showed CDD values of fewer than 10 consecutive dry days. In the R4.5 scenario, a meridional pattern emerged in CDD, increasing from east (E) to west (W). In the R8.5 scenario, the number of consecutive dry days increased across the entire country. The WSDI stood out in both the R4.5 and R8.5 scenarios, with an increase in the duration of warm spells in Thailand. The CSU did not perform satisfactorily in the scenarios adopted. Historically, the CWD indicated consecutive wet days in the N and NE, whereas in the R4.5 and R8.5 scenarios, this was observed only in the Central and Southern regions. Historically, the maximum number of consecutive rainy days varied in the NE and South via WW. In the R4.5 and R8.5 scenarios, there was a significant increase in the maximum number of consecutive rainy days across Thailand. Projections based on climate indices indicate that Thailand needs to adopt mitigation measures across its regions to neutralize the impacts of extreme drought and rainfall events on socioeconomic sectors, particularly in tourism, industry, agricultural production, and food security for its population.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-86826-xDrought eventsExtreme precipitationClimate changeClimate modelingAdaptation |
| spellingShingle | José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior David Mendes Helder Dutra Porto Kelvy Rosalvo Alencar Cardoso José Augusto Ferreira Neto Emannuel Bezerra Cavalcante da Silva Marlúcia de Aquino Pereira Monica Cristina Damião Mendes Bernardo Bruno Dias Baracho Punyawi Jamjareegulgarn Analysis of drought and extreme precipitation events in Thailand: trends, climate modeling, and implications for climate change adaptation Scientific Reports Drought events Extreme precipitation Climate change Climate modeling Adaptation |
| title | Analysis of drought and extreme precipitation events in Thailand: trends, climate modeling, and implications for climate change adaptation |
| title_full | Analysis of drought and extreme precipitation events in Thailand: trends, climate modeling, and implications for climate change adaptation |
| title_fullStr | Analysis of drought and extreme precipitation events in Thailand: trends, climate modeling, and implications for climate change adaptation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of drought and extreme precipitation events in Thailand: trends, climate modeling, and implications for climate change adaptation |
| title_short | Analysis of drought and extreme precipitation events in Thailand: trends, climate modeling, and implications for climate change adaptation |
| title_sort | analysis of drought and extreme precipitation events in thailand trends climate modeling and implications for climate change adaptation |
| topic | Drought events Extreme precipitation Climate change Climate modeling Adaptation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-86826-x |
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