Sensitivity analysis of fractional order SVEIR Lumpy Skin Disease model
Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a highly contagious and often fatal infection in cattle, primarily characterized by the formation of skin lumps. It leads to severe economic losses due to reduced milk production, weight loss, infertility, and hide damage. This study aims to comprehensively analyze the dy...
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| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Alexandria Engineering Journal |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1110016825001024 |
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| author | Savita Rathee Yogeeta Narwal Komal Bansal Homan Emadifar |
| author_facet | Savita Rathee Yogeeta Narwal Komal Bansal Homan Emadifar |
| author_sort | Savita Rathee |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a highly contagious and often fatal infection in cattle, primarily characterized by the formation of skin lumps. It leads to severe economic losses due to reduced milk production, weight loss, infertility, and hide damage. This study aims to comprehensively analyze the dynamics of LSD and devise effective mitigation strategies through mathematical modeling. A fractional SVEIR model is proposed to predict the transmission dynamics within affected cattle populations. The model’s feasibility is verified using the Laplace transformation, demonstrating both local stability, using the Matignon criterion, and global stability, employing Lyapunov functions and LaSalle’s invariance principle. The basic reproduction number (RLSD) is calculated using the next-generation matrix method. Sensitivity analysis, based on the normalized forward sensitivity index, identifies key parameters influencing RLSD: A 30% decrease in the average number of bites (β) reduces the infected cattle population by 16.58%. A 30% increase in the recovery rate (ρ) leads to a 29.35% reduction in infections. Increasing the vaccination rate (γ) by 79% lowers the number of sick cattle by 20%. Numerical simulations explore LSD transmission across five cattle populations under different scenarios of disease persistence and elimination. The findings are supported by theoretical analysis and visually represented through graphical illustrations, offering valuable insights into LSD control and prevention strategies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2f7b67c4ba8b4f00a717e38adf10b574 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1110-0168 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Alexandria Engineering Journal |
| spelling | doaj-art-2f7b67c4ba8b4f00a717e38adf10b5742025-02-12T05:30:42ZengElsevierAlexandria Engineering Journal1110-01682025-04-01119609622Sensitivity analysis of fractional order SVEIR Lumpy Skin Disease modelSavita Rathee0Yogeeta Narwal1Komal Bansal2Homan Emadifar3Department of Mathematics, Maharshi Dayanand University, Rohtak, IndiaDepartment of Mathematics, Maharshi Dayanand University, Rohtak, India; Government College, Baund Kalan, Charkhi Dadri, IndiaDepartment of Mathematics, Centre for Distance & Online Education, Chandigarh University, Mohali, India; Department of Mathematics, Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani Campus, Pilani, IndiaDepartment of Mathematics, Saveetha School of Engineering, Saveetha Institute of Medical and Technical Sciences, Chennai, India; Department of Mathematics, Hamedan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Hamedan, Iran; Corresponding author at: Department of Mathematics, Hamedan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Hamedan, Iran.Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a highly contagious and often fatal infection in cattle, primarily characterized by the formation of skin lumps. It leads to severe economic losses due to reduced milk production, weight loss, infertility, and hide damage. This study aims to comprehensively analyze the dynamics of LSD and devise effective mitigation strategies through mathematical modeling. A fractional SVEIR model is proposed to predict the transmission dynamics within affected cattle populations. The model’s feasibility is verified using the Laplace transformation, demonstrating both local stability, using the Matignon criterion, and global stability, employing Lyapunov functions and LaSalle’s invariance principle. The basic reproduction number (RLSD) is calculated using the next-generation matrix method. Sensitivity analysis, based on the normalized forward sensitivity index, identifies key parameters influencing RLSD: A 30% decrease in the average number of bites (β) reduces the infected cattle population by 16.58%. A 30% increase in the recovery rate (ρ) leads to a 29.35% reduction in infections. Increasing the vaccination rate (γ) by 79% lowers the number of sick cattle by 20%. Numerical simulations explore LSD transmission across five cattle populations under different scenarios of disease persistence and elimination. The findings are supported by theoretical analysis and visually represented through graphical illustrations, offering valuable insights into LSD control and prevention strategies.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1110016825001024Lumpy skin diseaseMathematical modelNormalized forward sensitivity indexLaSalle’s invariance principle |
| spellingShingle | Savita Rathee Yogeeta Narwal Komal Bansal Homan Emadifar Sensitivity analysis of fractional order SVEIR Lumpy Skin Disease model Alexandria Engineering Journal Lumpy skin disease Mathematical model Normalized forward sensitivity index LaSalle’s invariance principle |
| title | Sensitivity analysis of fractional order SVEIR Lumpy Skin Disease model |
| title_full | Sensitivity analysis of fractional order SVEIR Lumpy Skin Disease model |
| title_fullStr | Sensitivity analysis of fractional order SVEIR Lumpy Skin Disease model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Sensitivity analysis of fractional order SVEIR Lumpy Skin Disease model |
| title_short | Sensitivity analysis of fractional order SVEIR Lumpy Skin Disease model |
| title_sort | sensitivity analysis of fractional order sveir lumpy skin disease model |
| topic | Lumpy skin disease Mathematical model Normalized forward sensitivity index LaSalle’s invariance principle |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1110016825001024 |
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