The 2023 Mw 7.8–7.7 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes were loosely slip-predictable
Abstract Understanding the behavior of large earthquakes over multiple seismic cycles is limited by short time spans of observations compared to recurrence intervals. Most of large instrumentally-recorded earthquakes have occurred on faults lacking well-documented histories of past events. The 2023...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01969-5 |
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| author | Ellis Vavra Yuri Fialko Fatih Bulut Aslı Garagon Sefa Yalvaç Cenk Yaltırak |
| author_facet | Ellis Vavra Yuri Fialko Fatih Bulut Aslı Garagon Sefa Yalvaç Cenk Yaltırak |
| author_sort | Ellis Vavra |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Understanding the behavior of large earthquakes over multiple seismic cycles is limited by short time spans of observations compared to recurrence intervals. Most of large instrumentally-recorded earthquakes have occurred on faults lacking well-documented histories of past events. The 2023 Mw 7.8–7.7 Kahramanmaraş earthquake doublet is exceptional as it ruptured multiple segments of the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) system, where historical records of devastating earthquakes span over two millennia. Here, we use historical earthquake records, measurements of interseismic deformation, and published slip models of the 2023 events to evaluate the recurrence patterns of large earthquakes. We compare slip deficit that accrued on each fault segment since the respective penultimate events to the average coseismic slip of the 2023 doublet. We find that the coseismic slip equaled to or exceeded the accumulated slip deficit, suggesting that the slip-predictable recurrence model applies as a lower bound on strain release during the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-386165f248854136958989137d13c328 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj-art-386165f248854136958989137d13c3282025-02-09T12:55:57ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352025-02-016111010.1038/s43247-024-01969-5The 2023 Mw 7.8–7.7 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes were loosely slip-predictableEllis Vavra0Yuri Fialko1Fatih Bulut2Aslı Garagon3Sefa Yalvaç4Cenk Yaltırak5Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of CaliforniaInstitute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of CaliforniaGeodesy Department, Boğaziçi University, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research InstituteGeodesy Department, Boğaziçi University, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research InstituteSurvey Engineering Department, Gümüşhane University, Faculty of EngineeringGeology Department, Istanbul Technical University, Faculty of MinesAbstract Understanding the behavior of large earthquakes over multiple seismic cycles is limited by short time spans of observations compared to recurrence intervals. Most of large instrumentally-recorded earthquakes have occurred on faults lacking well-documented histories of past events. The 2023 Mw 7.8–7.7 Kahramanmaraş earthquake doublet is exceptional as it ruptured multiple segments of the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) system, where historical records of devastating earthquakes span over two millennia. Here, we use historical earthquake records, measurements of interseismic deformation, and published slip models of the 2023 events to evaluate the recurrence patterns of large earthquakes. We compare slip deficit that accrued on each fault segment since the respective penultimate events to the average coseismic slip of the 2023 doublet. We find that the coseismic slip equaled to or exceeded the accumulated slip deficit, suggesting that the slip-predictable recurrence model applies as a lower bound on strain release during the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01969-5 |
| spellingShingle | Ellis Vavra Yuri Fialko Fatih Bulut Aslı Garagon Sefa Yalvaç Cenk Yaltırak The 2023 Mw 7.8–7.7 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes were loosely slip-predictable Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | The 2023 Mw 7.8–7.7 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes were loosely slip-predictable |
| title_full | The 2023 Mw 7.8–7.7 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes were loosely slip-predictable |
| title_fullStr | The 2023 Mw 7.8–7.7 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes were loosely slip-predictable |
| title_full_unstemmed | The 2023 Mw 7.8–7.7 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes were loosely slip-predictable |
| title_short | The 2023 Mw 7.8–7.7 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes were loosely slip-predictable |
| title_sort | 2023 mw 7 8 7 7 kahramanmaras earthquakes were loosely slip predictable |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01969-5 |
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