Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Bandung City, Indonesia using a ARIMA model
Background. Dengue is a public health problem that leads to death. This disease is necessary to monitor to reduce its impact on the community. Purpose. This study aims to forecast the incidence of dengue in Bandung City using historical data from 2014 to 2023. Method. This retrospective observ...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Russian |
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Central Research Institute for Epidemiology
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Журнал микробиологии, эпидемиологии и иммунобиологии |
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| Online Access: | https://microbiol.crie.ru/jour/article/viewFile/18631/1554 |
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| _version_ | 1825208816631808000 |
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| author | Agung Sutriyawan Martini Martini Dwi Sutiningsih Farid Agushybana Nur Endah Wahyuningsih Victor Eneojo Adamu Hairil Akbar Matheus Aba |
| author_facet | Agung Sutriyawan Martini Martini Dwi Sutiningsih Farid Agushybana Nur Endah Wahyuningsih Victor Eneojo Adamu Hairil Akbar Matheus Aba |
| author_sort | Agung Sutriyawan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background. Dengue is a public health problem that leads to death. This disease is necessary to monitor to reduce its impact on the community.
Purpose. This study aims to forecast the incidence of dengue in Bandung City using historical data from 2014 to 2023.
Method. This retrospective observational study examined dengue incidence in Bandung City from 2014 to 2023, secondary data were processed and analysed using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast dengue incidence.
Results. The best model generated is ARIMA (3,0,3), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE = 33,3437) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC = 0,1489). Based on the model, the peak of dengue cases is estimated to occur in September 2024 (320 cases).
Conclusion. The peak incidence of dengue in Bandung City will occur in September 2024. Hence the need for vector control efforts in several sub-districts and increasing efforts to prevent and control dengue. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-89febef8cd354c87bc2f4224539802ae |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0372-9311 2686-7613 |
| language | Russian |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Central Research Institute for Epidemiology |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Журнал микробиологии, эпидемиологии и иммунобиологии |
| spelling | doaj-art-89febef8cd354c87bc2f4224539802ae2025-02-06T21:11:32ZrusCentral Research Institute for EpidemiologyЖурнал микробиологии, эпидемиологии и иммунобиологии0372-93112686-76132024-12-01101680381110.36233/0372-9311-5702801Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Bandung City, Indonesia using a ARIMA modelAgung Sutriyawan0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6119-6073Martini Martini1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6773-1727Dwi Sutiningsih2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4128-6688Farid Agushybana3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8557-370XNur Endah Wahyuningsih4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1358-1823Victor Eneojo Adamu5https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3352-0021Hairil Akbar6https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6672-9174Matheus Aba7https://orcid.org/0009-0009-1379-881XDiponegoro UniversityDiponegoro UniversityBhakti Kencana UniversityDiponegoro UniversityDiponegoro UniversityEuclid UniversityGraha Medika Institute of Health and TechnologyWirautama College of Health SciencesBackground. Dengue is a public health problem that leads to death. This disease is necessary to monitor to reduce its impact on the community. Purpose. This study aims to forecast the incidence of dengue in Bandung City using historical data from 2014 to 2023. Method. This retrospective observational study examined dengue incidence in Bandung City from 2014 to 2023, secondary data were processed and analysed using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast dengue incidence. Results. The best model generated is ARIMA (3,0,3), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE = 33,3437) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC = 0,1489). Based on the model, the peak of dengue cases is estimated to occur in September 2024 (320 cases). Conclusion. The peak incidence of dengue in Bandung City will occur in September 2024. Hence the need for vector control efforts in several sub-districts and increasing efforts to prevent and control dengue.https://microbiol.crie.ru/jour/article/viewFile/18631/1554dengue incidencedengue forecastarima modeloutbreak predictionindonesia |
| spellingShingle | Agung Sutriyawan Martini Martini Dwi Sutiningsih Farid Agushybana Nur Endah Wahyuningsih Victor Eneojo Adamu Hairil Akbar Matheus Aba Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Bandung City, Indonesia using a ARIMA model Журнал микробиологии, эпидемиологии и иммунобиологии dengue incidence dengue forecast arima model outbreak prediction indonesia |
| title | Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Bandung City, Indonesia using a ARIMA model |
| title_full | Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Bandung City, Indonesia using a ARIMA model |
| title_fullStr | Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Bandung City, Indonesia using a ARIMA model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Bandung City, Indonesia using a ARIMA model |
| title_short | Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Bandung City, Indonesia using a ARIMA model |
| title_sort | time series analysis of dengue incidence in bandung city indonesia using a arima model |
| topic | dengue incidence dengue forecast arima model outbreak prediction indonesia |
| url | https://microbiol.crie.ru/jour/article/viewFile/18631/1554 |
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