Modulation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone decadal variability by the Victoria mode
Intense tropical cyclones (TCs) in the southeastern western North Pacific (SE-WNP) significantly impact East Asian coastal nations. Decadal variability in TC genesis frequency (TCGF) has been linked to the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), a major sea surface temperature (SST) pattern in the North...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adb051 |
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| author | Tao Wen Jianping Li Shifei Tu Ruiqiang Ding Quanjia Zhong Xumin Li |
| author_facet | Tao Wen Jianping Li Shifei Tu Ruiqiang Ding Quanjia Zhong Xumin Li |
| author_sort | Tao Wen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Intense tropical cyclones (TCs) in the southeastern western North Pacific (SE-WNP) significantly impact East Asian coastal nations. Decadal variability in TC genesis frequency (TCGF) has been linked to the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), a major sea surface temperature (SST) pattern in the North Pacific. However, based on extended observation records, we show that the decadal variability of SE-WNP TCGF is mainly driven by the Victoria mode (VM), a secondary but prominent SST pattern in the North Pacific. During the positive VM phase, the SE-WNP TCGF is more than usual due to the anomalous large-scale environmental fields induced by the VM-related central North Pacific SST anomalies; conversely, the SE-WNP TCGF is less during the negative VM phase. This highlights the crucial role of the VM in modulating TC activity, challenging the traditional view that the PDO is the dominant factor, with important implications for SE-WNP TC climate predictions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8d974e2b12ac429ab6b9e3a56b109221 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-8d974e2b12ac429ab6b9e3a56b1092212025-02-11T07:10:21ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262025-01-0120303400310.1088/1748-9326/adb051Modulation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone decadal variability by the Victoria modeTao Wen0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9433-3452Jianping Li1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0625-1575Shifei Tu2Ruiqiang Ding3https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4139-3843Quanjia Zhong4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6774-3146Xumin Li5State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Hazards Risk Governance (ESPHR), Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University , Beijing, People’s Republic of China; Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters of Chinese Ministry of Education/Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University , Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Physical Oceanography‐Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China , Qingdao, People’s Republic of China; Laoshan Laboratory , Qingdao, People’s Republic of ChinaSouth China Sea Institute of Marine Meteorology/College of Ocean and Meteorology, Guangdong Ocean University , Zhanjiang, People’s Republic of ChinaState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Hazards Risk Governance (ESPHR), Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University , Beijing, People’s Republic of China; Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters of Chinese Ministry of Education/Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University , Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaCenter for Ocean Research in Hong Kong and Macau, Department of Ocean Science, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology , Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China, People’s Republic of ChinaState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Hazards Risk Governance (ESPHR), Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University , Beijing, People’s Republic of China; Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters of Chinese Ministry of Education/Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University , Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaIntense tropical cyclones (TCs) in the southeastern western North Pacific (SE-WNP) significantly impact East Asian coastal nations. Decadal variability in TC genesis frequency (TCGF) has been linked to the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), a major sea surface temperature (SST) pattern in the North Pacific. However, based on extended observation records, we show that the decadal variability of SE-WNP TCGF is mainly driven by the Victoria mode (VM), a secondary but prominent SST pattern in the North Pacific. During the positive VM phase, the SE-WNP TCGF is more than usual due to the anomalous large-scale environmental fields induced by the VM-related central North Pacific SST anomalies; conversely, the SE-WNP TCGF is less during the negative VM phase. This highlights the crucial role of the VM in modulating TC activity, challenging the traditional view that the PDO is the dominant factor, with important implications for SE-WNP TC climate predictions.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adb051North Pacifictropical cyclonedecadalvariability |
| spellingShingle | Tao Wen Jianping Li Shifei Tu Ruiqiang Ding Quanjia Zhong Xumin Li Modulation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone decadal variability by the Victoria mode Environmental Research Letters North Pacific tropical cyclone decadal variability |
| title | Modulation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone decadal variability by the Victoria mode |
| title_full | Modulation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone decadal variability by the Victoria mode |
| title_fullStr | Modulation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone decadal variability by the Victoria mode |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modulation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone decadal variability by the Victoria mode |
| title_short | Modulation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone decadal variability by the Victoria mode |
| title_sort | modulation of western north pacific tropical cyclone decadal variability by the victoria mode |
| topic | North Pacific tropical cyclone decadal variability |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adb051 |
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