Considerations for determining warm-water coral reef tipping points
<p>Warm-water coral reefs are facing unprecedented human-driven threats to their continued existence as biodiverse functional ecosystems upon which hundreds of millions of people rely. These impacts may drive coral ecosystems past critical thresholds, beyond which the system reorganises, often...
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Copernicus Publications
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Earth System Dynamics |
| Online Access: | https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/275/2025/esd-16-275-2025.pdf |
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| author | P. Pearce-Kelly A. H. Altieri J. F. Bruno C. E. Cornwall M. McField A. I. Muñiz-Castillo J. Rocha R. O. Setter C. Sheppard R. M. Roman-Cuesta C. Yesson |
| author_facet | P. Pearce-Kelly A. H. Altieri J. F. Bruno C. E. Cornwall M. McField A. I. Muñiz-Castillo J. Rocha R. O. Setter C. Sheppard R. M. Roman-Cuesta C. Yesson |
| author_sort | P. Pearce-Kelly |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Warm-water coral reefs are facing unprecedented human-driven threats to their continued existence as biodiverse functional ecosystems upon which hundreds of millions of people rely. These impacts may drive coral ecosystems past critical thresholds, beyond which the system reorganises, often abruptly and potentially irreversibly; this is what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2022) define as a tipping point. Determining tipping point thresholds for coral reef ecosystems requires a robust assessment of multiple stressors and their interactive effects. In this perspective piece, we draw upon the recent global tipping point revision initiative (Lenton et al., 2023a) and a literature search to identify and summarise the diverse range of interacting stressors that need to be considered for determining tipping point thresholds for warm-water coral reef ecosystems. Considering observed and projected stressor impacts, we endorse the global tipping point revision's conclusion of a global mean surface temperature (relative to pre-industrial) tipping point threshold of 1.2 <span class="inline-formula">°C</span> (range 1–1.5 <span class="inline-formula">°C</span>) and the long-term impacts of atmospheric <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> concentrations above 350 ppm, while acknowledging that comprehensive assessment of stressors, including ocean warming response dynamics, overshoot, and cascading impacts, have yet to be sufficiently realised. These tipping point thresholds have already been exceeded, and therefore these systems are in an overshoot state and are reliant on policy actions to bring stressor levels back within tipping point limits. A fuller assessment of interacting stressors is likely to further lower the tipping point thresholds in most cases. Uncertainties around tipping points for such crucially important ecosystems underline the imperative of robust assessment and, in the case of knowledge gaps, employing a precautionary principle favouring lower-range tipping point values.</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8fef2e7af1b749918ec4b58611443054 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2190-4979 2190-4987 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
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| series | Earth System Dynamics |
| spelling | doaj-art-8fef2e7af1b749918ec4b586114430542025-02-07T10:13:14ZengCopernicus PublicationsEarth System Dynamics2190-49792190-49872025-02-011627529210.5194/esd-16-275-2025Considerations for determining warm-water coral reef tipping pointsP. Pearce-Kelly0A. H. Altieri1J. F. Bruno2C. E. Cornwall3M. McField4A. I. Muñiz-Castillo5J. Rocha6R. O. Setter7C. Sheppard8R. M. Roman-Cuesta9C. Yesson10Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London, NW1 4RY, UKDepartment of Environmental Engineering Sciences, Engineering School of Sustainable Infrastructure & Environment, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USADepartment of Biology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USASchool of Biological Sciences and Coastal People Southern Skies Centre of Research Excellence, Victoria University of Wellington, Kelburn, Wellington, New ZealandHealthy Reefs for Healthy People Initiative, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, and the USA, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33312, USAHealthy Reefs for Healthy People Initiative, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, and the USA, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33312, USAStockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SwedenDepartment of Geography and Environment, University of Hawai`i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, USASchool of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UKSchool of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising, GermanyInstitute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London, NW1 4RY, UK<p>Warm-water coral reefs are facing unprecedented human-driven threats to their continued existence as biodiverse functional ecosystems upon which hundreds of millions of people rely. These impacts may drive coral ecosystems past critical thresholds, beyond which the system reorganises, often abruptly and potentially irreversibly; this is what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2022) define as a tipping point. Determining tipping point thresholds for coral reef ecosystems requires a robust assessment of multiple stressors and their interactive effects. In this perspective piece, we draw upon the recent global tipping point revision initiative (Lenton et al., 2023a) and a literature search to identify and summarise the diverse range of interacting stressors that need to be considered for determining tipping point thresholds for warm-water coral reef ecosystems. Considering observed and projected stressor impacts, we endorse the global tipping point revision's conclusion of a global mean surface temperature (relative to pre-industrial) tipping point threshold of 1.2 <span class="inline-formula">°C</span> (range 1–1.5 <span class="inline-formula">°C</span>) and the long-term impacts of atmospheric <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> concentrations above 350 ppm, while acknowledging that comprehensive assessment of stressors, including ocean warming response dynamics, overshoot, and cascading impacts, have yet to be sufficiently realised. These tipping point thresholds have already been exceeded, and therefore these systems are in an overshoot state and are reliant on policy actions to bring stressor levels back within tipping point limits. A fuller assessment of interacting stressors is likely to further lower the tipping point thresholds in most cases. Uncertainties around tipping points for such crucially important ecosystems underline the imperative of robust assessment and, in the case of knowledge gaps, employing a precautionary principle favouring lower-range tipping point values.</p>https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/275/2025/esd-16-275-2025.pdf |
| spellingShingle | P. Pearce-Kelly A. H. Altieri J. F. Bruno C. E. Cornwall M. McField A. I. Muñiz-Castillo J. Rocha R. O. Setter C. Sheppard R. M. Roman-Cuesta C. Yesson Considerations for determining warm-water coral reef tipping points Earth System Dynamics |
| title | Considerations for determining warm-water coral reef tipping points |
| title_full | Considerations for determining warm-water coral reef tipping points |
| title_fullStr | Considerations for determining warm-water coral reef tipping points |
| title_full_unstemmed | Considerations for determining warm-water coral reef tipping points |
| title_short | Considerations for determining warm-water coral reef tipping points |
| title_sort | considerations for determining warm water coral reef tipping points |
| url | https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/275/2025/esd-16-275-2025.pdf |
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