Estimation of true dates of various flowering stages at a centennial scale by applying a Bayesian statistical state space model.
Evaluation of long-term detailed cherry flowering phenology is required for a deep understanding of the sensitivity of spring phenology to climate change and its effect on cultural ecosystem services. Neodani Usuzumi-zakura (Cerasus itosakura) is a famous cherry tree in Gifu, Japan. On the basis of...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2025-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0317708 |
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| _version_ | 1823861044127203328 |
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| author | Nagai Shin Hakuryu Fujiwara Shinjiro Sugiyama Hiroshi Morimoto Taku M Saitoh |
| author_facet | Nagai Shin Hakuryu Fujiwara Shinjiro Sugiyama Hiroshi Morimoto Taku M Saitoh |
| author_sort | Nagai Shin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Evaluation of long-term detailed cherry flowering phenology is required for a deep understanding of the sensitivity of spring phenology to climate change and its effect on cultural ecosystem services. Neodani Usuzumi-zakura (Cerasus itosakura) is a famous cherry tree in Gifu, Japan. On the basis of detailed decadal flowering phenology information published on the World Wide Web, we estimated the probability distributions of the year-to-year variability of the true dates of first flowering (FFL), first full bloom (FFB), last full bloom (LFB), and last flowering (LFL) from 1924 to 2024 by applying a Bayesian statistical state space model explained by air temperature data. We verified the estimated values against flowering phenology records of the tree from the literature and a private collection. The true dates of FFL and FFB could be explained by means of daily minimum air temperature from 1 December to 28/29 February and that of daily mean air temperature from 1 to 31 March, and those of LFB and LFL by means of daily mean air temperature from 1 to 10 April. Results were similar when we used air temperature data recorded at weather stations both 1 km and 29 km from the tree. These results indicated that our proposed Bayesian statistical state space model can estimate cherry flowering phenology that takes into account centennial-scale air temperature data recorded at a nearby weather station with a coarse temporal resolution. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-961f5e64e086431194d657cd5f328496 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj-art-961f5e64e086431194d657cd5f3284962025-02-10T05:30:37ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032025-01-01202e031770810.1371/journal.pone.0317708Estimation of true dates of various flowering stages at a centennial scale by applying a Bayesian statistical state space model.Nagai ShinHakuryu FujiwaraShinjiro SugiyamaHiroshi MorimotoTaku M SaitohEvaluation of long-term detailed cherry flowering phenology is required for a deep understanding of the sensitivity of spring phenology to climate change and its effect on cultural ecosystem services. Neodani Usuzumi-zakura (Cerasus itosakura) is a famous cherry tree in Gifu, Japan. On the basis of detailed decadal flowering phenology information published on the World Wide Web, we estimated the probability distributions of the year-to-year variability of the true dates of first flowering (FFL), first full bloom (FFB), last full bloom (LFB), and last flowering (LFL) from 1924 to 2024 by applying a Bayesian statistical state space model explained by air temperature data. We verified the estimated values against flowering phenology records of the tree from the literature and a private collection. The true dates of FFL and FFB could be explained by means of daily minimum air temperature from 1 December to 28/29 February and that of daily mean air temperature from 1 to 31 March, and those of LFB and LFL by means of daily mean air temperature from 1 to 10 April. Results were similar when we used air temperature data recorded at weather stations both 1 km and 29 km from the tree. These results indicated that our proposed Bayesian statistical state space model can estimate cherry flowering phenology that takes into account centennial-scale air temperature data recorded at a nearby weather station with a coarse temporal resolution.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0317708 |
| spellingShingle | Nagai Shin Hakuryu Fujiwara Shinjiro Sugiyama Hiroshi Morimoto Taku M Saitoh Estimation of true dates of various flowering stages at a centennial scale by applying a Bayesian statistical state space model. PLoS ONE |
| title | Estimation of true dates of various flowering stages at a centennial scale by applying a Bayesian statistical state space model. |
| title_full | Estimation of true dates of various flowering stages at a centennial scale by applying a Bayesian statistical state space model. |
| title_fullStr | Estimation of true dates of various flowering stages at a centennial scale by applying a Bayesian statistical state space model. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimation of true dates of various flowering stages at a centennial scale by applying a Bayesian statistical state space model. |
| title_short | Estimation of true dates of various flowering stages at a centennial scale by applying a Bayesian statistical state space model. |
| title_sort | estimation of true dates of various flowering stages at a centennial scale by applying a bayesian statistical state space model |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0317708 |
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