Earthquake-based multi-hazard resilience assessment: a case study of Istanbul, Turkey (neighborhood level)
Abstract We developed a model integrating 28 criteria spanning social, economic, community, environmental, and physical dimensions to evaluate earthquake resilience of Istanbul, a city with a population of 16 million and significant seismic risk, at both district and subdistrict/neighborhood levels....
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-02-01
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| Series: | npj Natural Hazards |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00065-8 |
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| author | Saman Ghaffarian Mahyat Shafapourtehrany Umut Lagap Maryna Batur Haluk Özener Rıza Evren Kılcı Himmet Karaman |
| author_facet | Saman Ghaffarian Mahyat Shafapourtehrany Umut Lagap Maryna Batur Haluk Özener Rıza Evren Kılcı Himmet Karaman |
| author_sort | Saman Ghaffarian |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract We developed a model integrating 28 criteria spanning social, economic, community, environmental, and physical dimensions to evaluate earthquake resilience of Istanbul, a city with a population of 16 million and significant seismic risk, at both district and subdistrict/neighborhood levels. The resilience assessment uses the Bayesian Best-Worst Method, a multi-criteria decision-making framework that combines expert knowledge and statistical assessments. The results reveal that Istanbul’s overall Resilience Score (RS) is 0.48, on a 0-1 scale, suggesting a moderate capacity to endure and recover from seismic events. Catalca, Adalar, and Arnavutkoy rank among the most resilient districts, whereas Esenler and Gungoren exhibit lower resilience. On a subdistrict level, Suleymaniye (Fatih) has the highest RS at 0.59, while Yavuz Sultan Selim (Fatih) ranks the lowest with 0.22. These findings provide actionable and practical data-driven insights for policymakers and urban planners, underscoring the need for targeted interventions to improve resilience in high-risk areas in Istanbul. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9971ed7b197043c9ae68f2dde7b83e5c |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2948-2100 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Natural Hazards |
| spelling | doaj-art-9971ed7b197043c9ae68f2dde7b83e5c2025-02-09T12:12:58ZengNature Portfolionpj Natural Hazards2948-21002025-02-012112010.1038/s44304-025-00065-8Earthquake-based multi-hazard resilience assessment: a case study of Istanbul, Turkey (neighborhood level)Saman Ghaffarian0Mahyat Shafapourtehrany1Umut Lagap2Maryna Batur3Haluk Özener4Rıza Evren Kılcı5Himmet Karaman6Department of Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College LondonDepartment of Geodesy, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Bogazici UniversityDepartment of Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College LondonDepartment of Geomatics Engineering, Graduate School, Ayazaga Campus, Istanbul Technical UniversityDepartment of Geodesy, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Bogazici UniversityBüyükçekmece MunicipalityDepartment of Geomatics Engineering, Istanbul Technical UniversityAbstract We developed a model integrating 28 criteria spanning social, economic, community, environmental, and physical dimensions to evaluate earthquake resilience of Istanbul, a city with a population of 16 million and significant seismic risk, at both district and subdistrict/neighborhood levels. The resilience assessment uses the Bayesian Best-Worst Method, a multi-criteria decision-making framework that combines expert knowledge and statistical assessments. The results reveal that Istanbul’s overall Resilience Score (RS) is 0.48, on a 0-1 scale, suggesting a moderate capacity to endure and recover from seismic events. Catalca, Adalar, and Arnavutkoy rank among the most resilient districts, whereas Esenler and Gungoren exhibit lower resilience. On a subdistrict level, Suleymaniye (Fatih) has the highest RS at 0.59, while Yavuz Sultan Selim (Fatih) ranks the lowest with 0.22. These findings provide actionable and practical data-driven insights for policymakers and urban planners, underscoring the need for targeted interventions to improve resilience in high-risk areas in Istanbul.https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00065-8 |
| spellingShingle | Saman Ghaffarian Mahyat Shafapourtehrany Umut Lagap Maryna Batur Haluk Özener Rıza Evren Kılcı Himmet Karaman Earthquake-based multi-hazard resilience assessment: a case study of Istanbul, Turkey (neighborhood level) npj Natural Hazards |
| title | Earthquake-based multi-hazard resilience assessment: a case study of Istanbul, Turkey (neighborhood level) |
| title_full | Earthquake-based multi-hazard resilience assessment: a case study of Istanbul, Turkey (neighborhood level) |
| title_fullStr | Earthquake-based multi-hazard resilience assessment: a case study of Istanbul, Turkey (neighborhood level) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Earthquake-based multi-hazard resilience assessment: a case study of Istanbul, Turkey (neighborhood level) |
| title_short | Earthquake-based multi-hazard resilience assessment: a case study of Istanbul, Turkey (neighborhood level) |
| title_sort | earthquake based multi hazard resilience assessment a case study of istanbul turkey neighborhood level |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00065-8 |
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