Uncertainty analysis of varying inertia estimation based on Bayesian method
Power system inertia is important for maintaining power system frequency stability. Because of the integration of renewable energy sources (RESs) and the complexity of power system frequency response, the power system inertia response becomes intricate and uncertainties in inertia estimation increas...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-04-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0142061525000584 |
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| author | Dongdong Li Wei Hua Yang Mi |
| author_facet | Dongdong Li Wei Hua Yang Mi |
| author_sort | Dongdong Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Power system inertia is important for maintaining power system frequency stability. Because of the integration of renewable energy sources (RESs) and the complexity of power system frequency response, the power system inertia response becomes intricate and uncertainties in inertia estimation increase. The Bayesian inertia estimation method (BIEM) is proposed to estimate power system varying inertia and quantify estimation uncertainty from a Bayesian statistical and modeling perspective. Firstly, Bayesian linear regression with respect to time is applied to frequency which is measured at an event such as a generator trip or load change. Then the estimated inertia constant can be represented by a normal distribution, and the distribution can be further updated through Bayesian learning. Finally, performance and uncertainty of estimation can be evaluated by the proposed indices. The influence of power imbalance magnitude and frequency spatial distribution can also be analyzed. Moreover, the proposed method’s validity can be demonstrated by implementing Kundur’s four-generator two-area system in Simulink and the IEEE 39-bus New England system in the DIgSILENT PowerFactory. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9bdb5d29c61e4bb2a3b4ab5dd1e52a2b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0142-0615 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems |
| spelling | doaj-art-9bdb5d29c61e4bb2a3b4ab5dd1e52a2b2025-02-07T04:46:35ZengElsevierInternational Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems0142-06152025-04-01165110507Uncertainty analysis of varying inertia estimation based on Bayesian methodDongdong Li0Wei Hua1Yang Mi2College of Electric Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090, ChinaCorresponding author.; College of Electric Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090, ChinaCollege of Electric Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090, ChinaPower system inertia is important for maintaining power system frequency stability. Because of the integration of renewable energy sources (RESs) and the complexity of power system frequency response, the power system inertia response becomes intricate and uncertainties in inertia estimation increase. The Bayesian inertia estimation method (BIEM) is proposed to estimate power system varying inertia and quantify estimation uncertainty from a Bayesian statistical and modeling perspective. Firstly, Bayesian linear regression with respect to time is applied to frequency which is measured at an event such as a generator trip or load change. Then the estimated inertia constant can be represented by a normal distribution, and the distribution can be further updated through Bayesian learning. Finally, performance and uncertainty of estimation can be evaluated by the proposed indices. The influence of power imbalance magnitude and frequency spatial distribution can also be analyzed. Moreover, the proposed method’s validity can be demonstrated by implementing Kundur’s four-generator two-area system in Simulink and the IEEE 39-bus New England system in the DIgSILENT PowerFactory.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0142061525000584Inertia constantEstimationFrequency regulationBayesian statistics |
| spellingShingle | Dongdong Li Wei Hua Yang Mi Uncertainty analysis of varying inertia estimation based on Bayesian method International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems Inertia constant Estimation Frequency regulation Bayesian statistics |
| title | Uncertainty analysis of varying inertia estimation based on Bayesian method |
| title_full | Uncertainty analysis of varying inertia estimation based on Bayesian method |
| title_fullStr | Uncertainty analysis of varying inertia estimation based on Bayesian method |
| title_full_unstemmed | Uncertainty analysis of varying inertia estimation based on Bayesian method |
| title_short | Uncertainty analysis of varying inertia estimation based on Bayesian method |
| title_sort | uncertainty analysis of varying inertia estimation based on bayesian method |
| topic | Inertia constant Estimation Frequency regulation Bayesian statistics |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0142061525000584 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dongdongli uncertaintyanalysisofvaryinginertiaestimationbasedonbayesianmethod AT weihua uncertaintyanalysisofvaryinginertiaestimationbasedonbayesianmethod AT yangmi uncertaintyanalysisofvaryinginertiaestimationbasedonbayesianmethod |