Computing the time-dependent activity rate using non-declustered and declustered catalogues – a first step towards time-dependent seismic hazard calculations for operational earthquake forecasting
<p>Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) typically requires tectonic <span class="inline-formula"><i>b</i></span> values and seismic activity rates using declustered catalogues to compute the annual probability of exceedance of a given ground motion (fo...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2025-02-01
|
| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/515/2025/nhess-25-515-2025.pdf |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1825206811843624960 |
|---|---|
| author | D. Montiel-López S. Molina S. Molina J. J. Galiana-Merino J. J. Galiana-Merino I. Gómez I. Gómez A. Kharazian J. L. Soler-Llorens J. A. Huesca-Tortosa A. Guardiola-Villora G. Ortuño-Sáez |
| author_facet | D. Montiel-López S. Molina S. Molina J. J. Galiana-Merino J. J. Galiana-Merino I. Gómez I. Gómez A. Kharazian J. L. Soler-Llorens J. A. Huesca-Tortosa A. Guardiola-Villora G. Ortuño-Sáez |
| author_sort | D. Montiel-López |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) typically requires tectonic <span class="inline-formula"><i>b</i></span> values and seismic activity rates using declustered catalogues to compute the annual probability of exceedance of a given ground motion (for example, the peak ground acceleration or PGA). In this work, we propose a methodology that includes the spatially gridded time-dependent <span class="inline-formula"><i>b</i></span> value and activity rate computation using seismic clusters in PSHA calculations. To account for the spatial variability and the relationship of the earthquakes with the seismic sources, we incorporate the distance from the centre of the grid cell to the closest fault and the epicentre's uncertainty into the smoothing kernel as the average distance and the variance, respectively. To illustrate this methodology, we selected two scenarios as representatives of the high-seismicity region and low-to-moderate-seismicity region. The first one is located in Central Italy, where the L'Aquila earthquake happened, while the other is in south-eastern Spain, where several earthquakes with a moment magnitude (<span class="inline-formula"><i>M</i><sub>w</sub></span>) greater than 4.0 have taken place over the last 30 years, including two earthquakes with magnitude greater than or equal to 5.0. We compared three different seismic activity models based on the parameters considered in the calculations (distance from spatial cells to faults and epicentral distance uncertainty), and we defined and calculated the changes in the annual probability of exceedance for a given background PGA value. The results reveal noticeable changes in the annual probability of exceedance in the proximity of the occurrence of significant events. In the case of Italy, the annual probability of exceedance increases significantly, but in the case of Spain not all the earthquakes have an associated increase in the exceedance probability. However, we have observed how, for moderate- to low-seismicity regions, the use of a non-declustered catalogue can be appropriate when computing time-dependent PSHA, as in the case of Spain.</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a41447da3a7f491092c5d0e429a8f5cc |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj-art-a41447da3a7f491092c5d0e429a8f5cc2025-02-07T05:27:19ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812025-02-012551553910.5194/nhess-25-515-2025Computing the time-dependent activity rate using non-declustered and declustered catalogues – a first step towards time-dependent seismic hazard calculations for operational earthquake forecastingD. Montiel-López0S. Molina1S. Molina2J. J. Galiana-Merino3J. J. Galiana-Merino4I. Gómez5I. Gómez6A. Kharazian7J. L. Soler-Llorens8J. A. Huesca-Tortosa9A. Guardiola-Villora10G. Ortuño-Sáez11Multidisciplinary Institute for Environmental Studies “Ramón Margalef” (IMEM), University of Alicante, Ctra. San Vicente del Raspeig, s/n, 03080 Alicante, SpainMultidisciplinary Institute for Environmental Studies “Ramón Margalef” (IMEM), University of Alicante, Ctra. San Vicente del Raspeig, s/n, 03080 Alicante, SpainDepartment of Applied Physics, University of Alicante, Ctra. San Vicente del Raspeig, s/n, 03080 Alicante, SpainUniversity Institute of Physics Applied to Sciences and Technologies, University of Alicante, Ctra. San Vicente del Raspeig, s/n, 03080 Alicante, SpainDepartment of Physics, Systems Engineering and Signal Theory, University of Alicante, Ctra. San Vicente del Raspeig, s/n, 03080 Alicante, SpainMultidisciplinary Institute for Environmental Studies “Ramón Margalef” (IMEM), University of Alicante, Ctra. San Vicente del Raspeig, s/n, 03080 Alicante, SpainDepartment of Applied Physics, University of Alicante, Ctra. San Vicente del Raspeig, s/n, 03080 Alicante, SpainMultidisciplinary Institute for Environmental Studies “Ramón Margalef” (IMEM), University of Alicante, Ctra. San Vicente del Raspeig, s/n, 03080 Alicante, SpainDepartment of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Alicante, Ctra. San Vicente del Raspeig, s/n, 03080 Alicante, SpainDepartment of Architectural Constructions, University of Alicante, Ctra. San Vicente del Raspeig, s/n, 03080 Alicante, SpainDepartment of Continuum Mechanics and Theory of Structures, Universitat Politècnica de València, Camino de Vera, s/n, 46022 Valencia, SpainMunicipality of Orihuela, 03300 Orihuela, Spain<p>Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) typically requires tectonic <span class="inline-formula"><i>b</i></span> values and seismic activity rates using declustered catalogues to compute the annual probability of exceedance of a given ground motion (for example, the peak ground acceleration or PGA). In this work, we propose a methodology that includes the spatially gridded time-dependent <span class="inline-formula"><i>b</i></span> value and activity rate computation using seismic clusters in PSHA calculations. To account for the spatial variability and the relationship of the earthquakes with the seismic sources, we incorporate the distance from the centre of the grid cell to the closest fault and the epicentre's uncertainty into the smoothing kernel as the average distance and the variance, respectively. To illustrate this methodology, we selected two scenarios as representatives of the high-seismicity region and low-to-moderate-seismicity region. The first one is located in Central Italy, where the L'Aquila earthquake happened, while the other is in south-eastern Spain, where several earthquakes with a moment magnitude (<span class="inline-formula"><i>M</i><sub>w</sub></span>) greater than 4.0 have taken place over the last 30 years, including two earthquakes with magnitude greater than or equal to 5.0. We compared three different seismic activity models based on the parameters considered in the calculations (distance from spatial cells to faults and epicentral distance uncertainty), and we defined and calculated the changes in the annual probability of exceedance for a given background PGA value. The results reveal noticeable changes in the annual probability of exceedance in the proximity of the occurrence of significant events. In the case of Italy, the annual probability of exceedance increases significantly, but in the case of Spain not all the earthquakes have an associated increase in the exceedance probability. However, we have observed how, for moderate- to low-seismicity regions, the use of a non-declustered catalogue can be appropriate when computing time-dependent PSHA, as in the case of Spain.</p>https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/515/2025/nhess-25-515-2025.pdf |
| spellingShingle | D. Montiel-López S. Molina S. Molina J. J. Galiana-Merino J. J. Galiana-Merino I. Gómez I. Gómez A. Kharazian J. L. Soler-Llorens J. A. Huesca-Tortosa A. Guardiola-Villora G. Ortuño-Sáez Computing the time-dependent activity rate using non-declustered and declustered catalogues – a first step towards time-dependent seismic hazard calculations for operational earthquake forecasting Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Computing the time-dependent activity rate using non-declustered and declustered catalogues – a first step towards time-dependent seismic hazard calculations for operational earthquake forecasting |
| title_full | Computing the time-dependent activity rate using non-declustered and declustered catalogues – a first step towards time-dependent seismic hazard calculations for operational earthquake forecasting |
| title_fullStr | Computing the time-dependent activity rate using non-declustered and declustered catalogues – a first step towards time-dependent seismic hazard calculations for operational earthquake forecasting |
| title_full_unstemmed | Computing the time-dependent activity rate using non-declustered and declustered catalogues – a first step towards time-dependent seismic hazard calculations for operational earthquake forecasting |
| title_short | Computing the time-dependent activity rate using non-declustered and declustered catalogues – a first step towards time-dependent seismic hazard calculations for operational earthquake forecasting |
| title_sort | computing the time dependent activity rate using non declustered and declustered catalogues a first step towards time dependent seismic hazard calculations for operational earthquake forecasting |
| url | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/515/2025/nhess-25-515-2025.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dmontiellopez computingthetimedependentactivityrateusingnondeclusteredanddeclusteredcataloguesafirststeptowardstimedependentseismichazardcalculationsforoperationalearthquakeforecasting AT smolina computingthetimedependentactivityrateusingnondeclusteredanddeclusteredcataloguesafirststeptowardstimedependentseismichazardcalculationsforoperationalearthquakeforecasting AT smolina computingthetimedependentactivityrateusingnondeclusteredanddeclusteredcataloguesafirststeptowardstimedependentseismichazardcalculationsforoperationalearthquakeforecasting AT jjgalianamerino computingthetimedependentactivityrateusingnondeclusteredanddeclusteredcataloguesafirststeptowardstimedependentseismichazardcalculationsforoperationalearthquakeforecasting AT jjgalianamerino computingthetimedependentactivityrateusingnondeclusteredanddeclusteredcataloguesafirststeptowardstimedependentseismichazardcalculationsforoperationalearthquakeforecasting AT igomez computingthetimedependentactivityrateusingnondeclusteredanddeclusteredcataloguesafirststeptowardstimedependentseismichazardcalculationsforoperationalearthquakeforecasting AT igomez computingthetimedependentactivityrateusingnondeclusteredanddeclusteredcataloguesafirststeptowardstimedependentseismichazardcalculationsforoperationalearthquakeforecasting AT akharazian computingthetimedependentactivityrateusingnondeclusteredanddeclusteredcataloguesafirststeptowardstimedependentseismichazardcalculationsforoperationalearthquakeforecasting AT jlsolerllorens computingthetimedependentactivityrateusingnondeclusteredanddeclusteredcataloguesafirststeptowardstimedependentseismichazardcalculationsforoperationalearthquakeforecasting AT jahuescatortosa computingthetimedependentactivityrateusingnondeclusteredanddeclusteredcataloguesafirststeptowardstimedependentseismichazardcalculationsforoperationalearthquakeforecasting AT aguardiolavillora computingthetimedependentactivityrateusingnondeclusteredanddeclusteredcataloguesafirststeptowardstimedependentseismichazardcalculationsforoperationalearthquakeforecasting AT gortunosaez computingthetimedependentactivityrateusingnondeclusteredanddeclusteredcataloguesafirststeptowardstimedependentseismichazardcalculationsforoperationalearthquakeforecasting |