Spatiotemporal simulation of sustainable development based on ecosystem services under climate change.
This study explores the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of ecosystem services (ESs) in the karst region of southeastern Yunnan under the backdrop of climate change. The study innovatively calculates the sustainable development goals (SDG) index based on ecosystem services (ESs). It emplo...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2025-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0316605 |
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| author | Bao Zhou Guoping Chen Junsan Zhao Ying Yin |
| author_facet | Bao Zhou Guoping Chen Junsan Zhao Ying Yin |
| author_sort | Bao Zhou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study explores the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of ecosystem services (ESs) in the karst region of southeastern Yunnan under the backdrop of climate change. The study innovatively calculates the sustainable development goals (SDG) index based on ecosystem services (ESs). It employs the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model to simulate future land use changes (LUCs) and uses the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) model to assess ESs under different scenarios. This research systematically evaluates the ESs and SDGs in karst regions within the context of climate change. The results indicate that: (1) Under all three scenarios in 2035, the trend of LUCs in the karst area of southeastern Yunnan is highly consistent, though the intensity and spatial configuration vary significantly. The least reduction in arable land area occurs under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 126 scenario, while water bodies and construction land show varying degrees of increase; (2) Regarding ESs, both water yield and soil retention exhibit an increasing trend across all scenarios by 2035, with the most notable rise under SSP126. Conversely, habitat quality and carbon storage show a decline, with the smallest decrease also under SSP126; (3) Analyzing the SDG index, the overall value is low in 2020. In future scenarios, the SDG index increases in the southern part while decreasing in the eastern part, indicating significant differences in regional sustainable development potential. Hotspots under SSP126 and SSP245 are concentrated in the densely vegetated southwest and eastern edge areas, while cold spots are mainly found in the heavily human-impacted central Yunnan urban agglomeration and Wenshan City. This study systematically explores for the first time the spatiotemporal dynamics of ESs in the karst region of southeastern Yunnan under different climate scenarios. It provides scientific evidence for regional ecological protection and land use planning. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a5791459f8194ef4af597da7beff5781 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj-art-a5791459f8194ef4af597da7beff57812025-02-09T05:30:38ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032025-01-01202e031660510.1371/journal.pone.0316605Spatiotemporal simulation of sustainable development based on ecosystem services under climate change.Bao ZhouGuoping ChenJunsan ZhaoYing YinThis study explores the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of ecosystem services (ESs) in the karst region of southeastern Yunnan under the backdrop of climate change. The study innovatively calculates the sustainable development goals (SDG) index based on ecosystem services (ESs). It employs the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model to simulate future land use changes (LUCs) and uses the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) model to assess ESs under different scenarios. This research systematically evaluates the ESs and SDGs in karst regions within the context of climate change. The results indicate that: (1) Under all three scenarios in 2035, the trend of LUCs in the karst area of southeastern Yunnan is highly consistent, though the intensity and spatial configuration vary significantly. The least reduction in arable land area occurs under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 126 scenario, while water bodies and construction land show varying degrees of increase; (2) Regarding ESs, both water yield and soil retention exhibit an increasing trend across all scenarios by 2035, with the most notable rise under SSP126. Conversely, habitat quality and carbon storage show a decline, with the smallest decrease also under SSP126; (3) Analyzing the SDG index, the overall value is low in 2020. In future scenarios, the SDG index increases in the southern part while decreasing in the eastern part, indicating significant differences in regional sustainable development potential. Hotspots under SSP126 and SSP245 are concentrated in the densely vegetated southwest and eastern edge areas, while cold spots are mainly found in the heavily human-impacted central Yunnan urban agglomeration and Wenshan City. This study systematically explores for the first time the spatiotemporal dynamics of ESs in the karst region of southeastern Yunnan under different climate scenarios. It provides scientific evidence for regional ecological protection and land use planning.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0316605 |
| spellingShingle | Bao Zhou Guoping Chen Junsan Zhao Ying Yin Spatiotemporal simulation of sustainable development based on ecosystem services under climate change. PLoS ONE |
| title | Spatiotemporal simulation of sustainable development based on ecosystem services under climate change. |
| title_full | Spatiotemporal simulation of sustainable development based on ecosystem services under climate change. |
| title_fullStr | Spatiotemporal simulation of sustainable development based on ecosystem services under climate change. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatiotemporal simulation of sustainable development based on ecosystem services under climate change. |
| title_short | Spatiotemporal simulation of sustainable development based on ecosystem services under climate change. |
| title_sort | spatiotemporal simulation of sustainable development based on ecosystem services under climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0316605 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT baozhou spatiotemporalsimulationofsustainabledevelopmentbasedonecosystemservicesunderclimatechange AT guopingchen spatiotemporalsimulationofsustainabledevelopmentbasedonecosystemservicesunderclimatechange AT junsanzhao spatiotemporalsimulationofsustainabledevelopmentbasedonecosystemservicesunderclimatechange AT yingyin spatiotemporalsimulationofsustainabledevelopmentbasedonecosystemservicesunderclimatechange |