Predictive power of selection tests on the academic performance of medical students

This study analyzes the predictive power of various selection tests for admission to the bachelor’s degree in medical surgery at the Autonomous University of Tamaulipas. A retrospective cohort study with an analytical approach was conducted, evaluating 167 students of the 2022 cohort. Their performa...

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Main Authors: María E. Calles Santoyo, Raúl De León Escobedo, Ricardo Salas Flores, Brian González Pérez, Erick E. Hernández Molina
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2025-02-01
Series:Frontiers in Education
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Online Access:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feduc.2025.1503450/full
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author María E. Calles Santoyo
Raúl De León Escobedo
Ricardo Salas Flores
Brian González Pérez
Erick E. Hernández Molina
author_facet María E. Calles Santoyo
Raúl De León Escobedo
Ricardo Salas Flores
Brian González Pérez
Erick E. Hernández Molina
author_sort María E. Calles Santoyo
collection DOAJ
description This study analyzes the predictive power of various selection tests for admission to the bachelor’s degree in medical surgery at the Autonomous University of Tamaulipas. A retrospective cohort study with an analytical approach was conducted, evaluating 167 students of the 2022 cohort. Their performance in the first two school periods was compared with the results of admission tests such as the National Entrance Exam II of the National Evaluation Center for Graduate Education (CENEVAL EXANI-II), and other exams of the propaedeutic course. It was revealed that the CENEVAL EXANI-II test has a medium-high correlation (r = 0.588; p = 0.000) with academic performance in the first two terms although its predictive power is relatively low (R2 = 0.138, p = 0.001). Histology modules (r = 0.518; p = 0.000), and Module Final Exam (r = 0.472; p = 0.000) showed significant correlations but with lower predictive power. Differences in academic performance were identified according to gender and type of admission (selected vs. conditional). Although screening tests can predict academic success to some extent, their effectiveness is limited. Improved assessment methods are recommended to enhance the development of students in their medical training. This study provides the basis for future research on optimizing selection processes in medical education.
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spelling doaj-art-bf22401dce9b4b3eaeb243cc0ec5d1522025-02-10T11:37:20ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Education2504-284X2025-02-011010.3389/feduc.2025.15034501503450Predictive power of selection tests on the academic performance of medical studentsMaría E. Calles SantoyoRaúl De León EscobedoRicardo Salas FloresBrian González PérezErick E. Hernández MolinaThis study analyzes the predictive power of various selection tests for admission to the bachelor’s degree in medical surgery at the Autonomous University of Tamaulipas. A retrospective cohort study with an analytical approach was conducted, evaluating 167 students of the 2022 cohort. Their performance in the first two school periods was compared with the results of admission tests such as the National Entrance Exam II of the National Evaluation Center for Graduate Education (CENEVAL EXANI-II), and other exams of the propaedeutic course. It was revealed that the CENEVAL EXANI-II test has a medium-high correlation (r = 0.588; p = 0.000) with academic performance in the first two terms although its predictive power is relatively low (R2 = 0.138, p = 0.001). Histology modules (r = 0.518; p = 0.000), and Module Final Exam (r = 0.472; p = 0.000) showed significant correlations but with lower predictive power. Differences in academic performance were identified according to gender and type of admission (selected vs. conditional). Although screening tests can predict academic success to some extent, their effectiveness is limited. Improved assessment methods are recommended to enhance the development of students in their medical training. This study provides the basis for future research on optimizing selection processes in medical education.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feduc.2025.1503450/fullassessmentpredictive poweracademic performancemedical studentsmedical educationpredictive power analysis
spellingShingle María E. Calles Santoyo
Raúl De León Escobedo
Ricardo Salas Flores
Brian González Pérez
Erick E. Hernández Molina
Predictive power of selection tests on the academic performance of medical students
Frontiers in Education
assessment
predictive power
academic performance
medical students
medical education
predictive power analysis
title Predictive power of selection tests on the academic performance of medical students
title_full Predictive power of selection tests on the academic performance of medical students
title_fullStr Predictive power of selection tests on the academic performance of medical students
title_full_unstemmed Predictive power of selection tests on the academic performance of medical students
title_short Predictive power of selection tests on the academic performance of medical students
title_sort predictive power of selection tests on the academic performance of medical students
topic assessment
predictive power
academic performance
medical students
medical education
predictive power analysis
url https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feduc.2025.1503450/full
work_keys_str_mv AT mariaecallessantoyo predictivepowerofselectiontestsontheacademicperformanceofmedicalstudents
AT rauldeleonescobedo predictivepowerofselectiontestsontheacademicperformanceofmedicalstudents
AT ricardosalasflores predictivepowerofselectiontestsontheacademicperformanceofmedicalstudents
AT briangonzalezperez predictivepowerofselectiontestsontheacademicperformanceofmedicalstudents
AT erickehernandezmolina predictivepowerofselectiontestsontheacademicperformanceofmedicalstudents