Historical and projected forest cover changes in the Mount Kenya Ecosystem: Implications for sustainable forest management
Understanding historical patterns of forest cover change (FCC) is critical for predicting future trends and informing sustainable management strategies. This study quantified and analyzed historical and projected FCC in the Mount Kenya Ecosystem (MKE), central Kenya. Land Use Land Cover (LULC) maps...
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Elsevier
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Environmental and Sustainability Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2665972725000492 |
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| author | Brian Rotich Abdalrahman Ahmed Benjamin Kinyili Harison Kipkulei |
| author_facet | Brian Rotich Abdalrahman Ahmed Benjamin Kinyili Harison Kipkulei |
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| description | Understanding historical patterns of forest cover change (FCC) is critical for predicting future trends and informing sustainable management strategies. This study quantified and analyzed historical and projected FCC in the Mount Kenya Ecosystem (MKE), central Kenya. Land Use Land Cover (LULC) maps for 2000, 2014, and 2023 were classified using Random Forest (RF) in Google Earth Engine (GEE). Explanatory factors of LULC change (slope, aspect, population density, proximity to rivers, roads, and towns) were used to project LULC for 2035 using Cellular Automata and Markov Chain Analysis (CA-MCA).Six LULC types (open forest, closed forest, cropland, bareland, built-up, shrubland and grassland) were successfully classified with accuracies exceeding 82.5% and Kappa coefficients above 0.77. Between 2000 and 2023, open forest (+201.12 km2), cropland (+218 km2), bareland (+290.09 km2), and built-up areas (+0.27 km2) expanded, while closed forest (−141.55 km2) and shrubland and grassland (−567.93 km2) declined. An overall Kappa coefficient value of 0.78 and an accuracy of 82% indicated good results for LULC statistics and projected map for 2035. LULC projections for the year 2035 under the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario suggest continued expansion of cropland (+174.70 km2), built-up areas (+0.49 km2), and open forest (+471.72 km2), with declines in closed forest (−423.53 km2) and shrubland and grassland (−357.79 km2).These results highlight the ongoing pressures on the MKE's biodiversity and ecosystem services. The study's methods offer a replicable framework for assessing FCC in similar ecosystems to inform evidence-based conservation and land management policies. |
| format | Article |
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| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2665-9727 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
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| series | Environmental and Sustainability Indicators |
| spelling | doaj-art-ec2f728abc8b48129af1c42e51b2b3d12025-02-12T05:32:47ZengElsevierEnvironmental and Sustainability Indicators2665-97272025-06-0126100628Historical and projected forest cover changes in the Mount Kenya Ecosystem: Implications for sustainable forest managementBrian Rotich0Abdalrahman Ahmed1Benjamin Kinyili2Harison Kipkulei3Institute of Environmental Sciences, Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Gödöllő, H-2100, Hungary; Faculty of Environmental Studies and Resources Development, Chuka University, P.O. Box 109-60400, Chuka, Kenya; Corresponding author. Institute of Environmental Sciences, Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Gödöllő, H-2100, Hungary.Institute of Geomatics and Civil Engineering, Faculty of Forestry, University of Sopron. Bajcsy-Zs 4, Sopron, 9400, Hungary; Department of Forest and Environment, Faculty of Forest Science and Technology, University of Gezira, SudanKenya Forest Service, Department of Forest Survey and Information Management, P.O Box 30513-00100, Nairobi, KenyaDepartment of Geomatic Engineering and Geospatial Information Systems, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, P.O. Box, 62000 00200, Nairobi, Kenya; Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) Eberswalder Straße 84, 15374, Müncheberg, Germany; University of Augsburg, Faculty of Applied Computer Sciences, Institute of Geography, Alter Postweg 118, 86159, Augsburg, GermanyUnderstanding historical patterns of forest cover change (FCC) is critical for predicting future trends and informing sustainable management strategies. This study quantified and analyzed historical and projected FCC in the Mount Kenya Ecosystem (MKE), central Kenya. Land Use Land Cover (LULC) maps for 2000, 2014, and 2023 were classified using Random Forest (RF) in Google Earth Engine (GEE). Explanatory factors of LULC change (slope, aspect, population density, proximity to rivers, roads, and towns) were used to project LULC for 2035 using Cellular Automata and Markov Chain Analysis (CA-MCA).Six LULC types (open forest, closed forest, cropland, bareland, built-up, shrubland and grassland) were successfully classified with accuracies exceeding 82.5% and Kappa coefficients above 0.77. Between 2000 and 2023, open forest (+201.12 km2), cropland (+218 km2), bareland (+290.09 km2), and built-up areas (+0.27 km2) expanded, while closed forest (−141.55 km2) and shrubland and grassland (−567.93 km2) declined. An overall Kappa coefficient value of 0.78 and an accuracy of 82% indicated good results for LULC statistics and projected map for 2035. LULC projections for the year 2035 under the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario suggest continued expansion of cropland (+174.70 km2), built-up areas (+0.49 km2), and open forest (+471.72 km2), with declines in closed forest (−423.53 km2) and shrubland and grassland (−357.79 km2).These results highlight the ongoing pressures on the MKE's biodiversity and ecosystem services. The study's methods offer a replicable framework for assessing FCC in similar ecosystems to inform evidence-based conservation and land management policies.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2665972725000492LandsatForest coverRemote sensingCA–MCA modelMount Kenya forest |
| spellingShingle | Brian Rotich Abdalrahman Ahmed Benjamin Kinyili Harison Kipkulei Historical and projected forest cover changes in the Mount Kenya Ecosystem: Implications for sustainable forest management Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Landsat Forest cover Remote sensing CA–MCA model Mount Kenya forest |
| title | Historical and projected forest cover changes in the Mount Kenya Ecosystem: Implications for sustainable forest management |
| title_full | Historical and projected forest cover changes in the Mount Kenya Ecosystem: Implications for sustainable forest management |
| title_fullStr | Historical and projected forest cover changes in the Mount Kenya Ecosystem: Implications for sustainable forest management |
| title_full_unstemmed | Historical and projected forest cover changes in the Mount Kenya Ecosystem: Implications for sustainable forest management |
| title_short | Historical and projected forest cover changes in the Mount Kenya Ecosystem: Implications for sustainable forest management |
| title_sort | historical and projected forest cover changes in the mount kenya ecosystem implications for sustainable forest management |
| topic | Landsat Forest cover Remote sensing CA–MCA model Mount Kenya forest |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2665972725000492 |
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