Impact of interventions on mpox transmission during the 2022 outbreak in Canada: a mathematical modeling study of three different cities
Objectives: The global mpox (clade II) outbreak of 2022 primarily affected gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBM) and was met with swift community and public health responses. We aimed to estimate the relative impact of changes in sexual behaviors, contact tracing/isolation, and fi...
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Elsevier
2025-04-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971225000165 |
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| author | Fanyu Xiu Carla M. Doyle Jorge Luis Flores Anato Jesse Knight Linwei Wang Joseph Cox Daniel Grace Trevor A. Hart Terri Zhang Shayna Skakoon-Sparling Milada Dvorakova Rita Shahin Herveen Sachdeva Nathan Lachowsky Hind Sbihi Darrell H.S. Tan Michael A. Irvine Sharmistha Mishra Mathieu Maheu-Giroux |
| author_facet | Fanyu Xiu Carla M. Doyle Jorge Luis Flores Anato Jesse Knight Linwei Wang Joseph Cox Daniel Grace Trevor A. Hart Terri Zhang Shayna Skakoon-Sparling Milada Dvorakova Rita Shahin Herveen Sachdeva Nathan Lachowsky Hind Sbihi Darrell H.S. Tan Michael A. Irvine Sharmistha Mishra Mathieu Maheu-Giroux |
| author_sort | Fanyu Xiu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objectives: The global mpox (clade II) outbreak of 2022 primarily affected gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBM) and was met with swift community and public health responses. We aimed to estimate the relative impact of changes in sexual behaviors, contact tracing/isolation, and first-dose vaccination on transmission in Canadian cities. Methods: We estimated changes in sexual behaviors during the outbreak using 2022 data from the Engage Cohort Study, which recruited self-identified GBM in Montréal, Toronto, and Vancouver (n = 1,445). We developed a transmission dynamic model to estimate the fraction of new infections averted due to the three interventions in each city. Results: The empirical estimates of sexual behavior changes were imprecise: a 20% reduction (RR = 0.80; 95% credible interval [95% CrI]: 0.47-1.36) in the number of sexual partners in the past 6 months among those reporting ≤7 partners and a 33% (RR = 0.67; 95% CrI: 0.31-1.43) reduction among those with >7 partners. The three interventions combined averted 46%-58% of cases. Reductions in sexual partners and contact tracing/isolation prevented approximately 12% and 14% of cases, respectively. Vaccination's effect varied across cities due to the programs' timing and coverage, with 21%-39% mpox infections prevented. Conclusions: Reduction in sexual activity, contact tracing/isolation, and vaccination all contributed to accelerating epidemic control. Early vaccination had the largest impact. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ff7b4759764447f6b74bae7f1f9aa255 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1201-9712 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj-art-ff7b4759764447f6b74bae7f1f9aa2552025-02-10T04:34:15ZengElsevierInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases1201-97122025-04-01153107792Impact of interventions on mpox transmission during the 2022 outbreak in Canada: a mathematical modeling study of three different citiesFanyu Xiu0Carla M. Doyle1Jorge Luis Flores Anato2Jesse Knight3Linwei Wang4Joseph Cox5Daniel Grace6Trevor A. Hart7Terri Zhang8Shayna Skakoon-Sparling9Milada Dvorakova10Rita Shahin11Herveen Sachdeva12Nathan Lachowsky13Hind Sbihi14Darrell H.S. Tan15Michael A. Irvine16Sharmistha Mishra17Mathieu Maheu-Giroux18Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McGill University, Montréal, Québec, CanadaDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McGill University, Montréal, Québec, CanadaDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McGill University, Montréal, Québec, CanadaMAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Institute of Medical Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, CanadaMAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, CanadaDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McGill University, Montréal, Québec, Canada; Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre, Montréal, Québec, CanadaDalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, CanadaDalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Department of Psychology, Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto, Ontario, CanadaDepartment of Psychology, Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto, Ontario, CanadaDepartment of Psychology, Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Department of Psychology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, CanadaResearch Institute of the McGill University Health Centre, Montréal, Québec, CanadaDalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Toronto Public Health, Toronto, Ontario, CanadaDalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Toronto Public Health, Toronto, Ontario, CanadaSchool of Public Health and Social Policy, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, CanadaData and Analytic Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, CanadaInstitute of Medical Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre, Montréal, Québec, Canada; Department of Medicine, St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, CanadaData and Analytic Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada; Department of Statistics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, CanadaMAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Institute of Medical Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Department of Medicine, St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, CanadaDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McGill University, Montréal, Québec, Canada; Corresponding author: Mathieu Maheu-Giroux, ScD, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population and Global Health, McGill University, 2001 Avenue McGill College (Suite 1200), Montréal, QC, CanadaObjectives: The global mpox (clade II) outbreak of 2022 primarily affected gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBM) and was met with swift community and public health responses. We aimed to estimate the relative impact of changes in sexual behaviors, contact tracing/isolation, and first-dose vaccination on transmission in Canadian cities. Methods: We estimated changes in sexual behaviors during the outbreak using 2022 data from the Engage Cohort Study, which recruited self-identified GBM in Montréal, Toronto, and Vancouver (n = 1,445). We developed a transmission dynamic model to estimate the fraction of new infections averted due to the three interventions in each city. Results: The empirical estimates of sexual behavior changes were imprecise: a 20% reduction (RR = 0.80; 95% credible interval [95% CrI]: 0.47-1.36) in the number of sexual partners in the past 6 months among those reporting ≤7 partners and a 33% (RR = 0.67; 95% CrI: 0.31-1.43) reduction among those with >7 partners. The three interventions combined averted 46%-58% of cases. Reductions in sexual partners and contact tracing/isolation prevented approximately 12% and 14% of cases, respectively. Vaccination's effect varied across cities due to the programs' timing and coverage, with 21%-39% mpox infections prevented. Conclusions: Reduction in sexual activity, contact tracing/isolation, and vaccination all contributed to accelerating epidemic control. Early vaccination had the largest impact.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971225000165MpoxMathematical modelMen who have sex with menVaccinationContact tracingBehavioural change |
| spellingShingle | Fanyu Xiu Carla M. Doyle Jorge Luis Flores Anato Jesse Knight Linwei Wang Joseph Cox Daniel Grace Trevor A. Hart Terri Zhang Shayna Skakoon-Sparling Milada Dvorakova Rita Shahin Herveen Sachdeva Nathan Lachowsky Hind Sbihi Darrell H.S. Tan Michael A. Irvine Sharmistha Mishra Mathieu Maheu-Giroux Impact of interventions on mpox transmission during the 2022 outbreak in Canada: a mathematical modeling study of three different cities International Journal of Infectious Diseases Mpox Mathematical model Men who have sex with men Vaccination Contact tracing Behavioural change |
| title | Impact of interventions on mpox transmission during the 2022 outbreak in Canada: a mathematical modeling study of three different cities |
| title_full | Impact of interventions on mpox transmission during the 2022 outbreak in Canada: a mathematical modeling study of three different cities |
| title_fullStr | Impact of interventions on mpox transmission during the 2022 outbreak in Canada: a mathematical modeling study of three different cities |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of interventions on mpox transmission during the 2022 outbreak in Canada: a mathematical modeling study of three different cities |
| title_short | Impact of interventions on mpox transmission during the 2022 outbreak in Canada: a mathematical modeling study of three different cities |
| title_sort | impact of interventions on mpox transmission during the 2022 outbreak in canada a mathematical modeling study of three different cities |
| topic | Mpox Mathematical model Men who have sex with men Vaccination Contact tracing Behavioural change |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971225000165 |
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